5 Countries that Might Soon Exist...

Following the end of the Cold War, there were dozens of newly recognized countries across the world, mostly in the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. Since then, however, things have slowed down quite a bit. In the 21st century, only a few new countries have been largely recognized, with the most recent being South Sudan in 2011.

However, there are still many areas across the world where the people seek to gain independence and recognition as a sovereign state. Today we’ll be looking at five such areas that might soon become new countries.

Bougainville

Of all the areas we’ll be looking at today, Bougainville is the one most likely to become a new country in the immediate future. Theoretically it’s a done deal, though it is still pending parliamentary approval.

Although Bougainville has been populated for nearly 30,000 years, its quest for independent recognition begins with its colonization by the Germans in the 1880s. After all, before the island was colonized, they had nobody to declare independence from.

The German Empire had laid claim to New Guinea, and both they and the British Empire had their eyes on the neighbouring Solomon Islands. An agreement was reached between the nations by which they divided the Solomon Islands amongst themselves, with Bougainville becoming part of German New Guinea.

After the conclusion of World War I, German New Guinea became occupied by the Australians, and a League of Nations mandate officially placed the Territory of New Guinea under Australian control. Bougainville had mainly been important because of its strategic location, but in 1969 it was discovered to hold one of the largest deposits of copper ore in the world.

Bougainville’s ore deposits contain roughly 1 billion tons of copper and 12 million ounces of gold. Bougainville Copper Limited was created to mine the ore, and the island was flooded with workers from offshore who worked in the mines. But throughout this period and the previous decades, Australia had slowly been preparing Papua New Guinea for self governance and independence, a rather peaceful process that ended in 1975 when Papua New Guinea officially gained its independence.

However, Bougainville shared little in common with the Papua New Guinea mainland. They were also resentful of the copper mine, which they essentially saw as the exploitation of their home. Bougainville Copper Ltd made up nearly 50% of the nation’s export revenue, with much of the money going directly to the government of Papua New Guinea, who owned 20% of the company. The indigenous population of Bougainville received only about 1% of the total profit from the mine.

Between the destruction to the environment, refusal to share financial benefits of the mine, and what were perceived as negative societal changes from all the mainland miners coming to work on their island, the people of Bougainville began to seek secession from Papua New Guinea.

Government forces kept suppressing activity from activists who sought independence, finally resulting in a decade long civil war from 1988 through 1998. Over the course of the conflict it’s estimated that between 15,000 and 20,000 Bougainvilleans were killed, which was nearly 10% of the island’s total population. Only 300 members of the Papua New Guinea Defense Force were killed, though thousands were injured.

New Zealand helped to broker peace between the Bougainville and the mainland. The formal peace agreement called for the creation of an Autonomous Bougainville Government, which was fully established in 2000. Another provision of the peace agreement was that, within 20 years of the autonomous government being created, they would be allowed to hold a non-binding referendum for independence from Papua New Guinea.

That vote finally took place in December of 2019, and the results were overwhelming. An astonishing 98% of Bougainvilleans voted for independence, with 87% voter turnout. Although this was a nonbinding referendum, the governments have been in talks on how to make Bougainville’s independence a reality. Bougainville’s president set a deadline of 2027 for the transition to be complete, though the independence vote is still awaiting ratification from the Papua New Guinea parliament.

Although the Papua New Guinea government does seem to be willing to grant independence, their prime minister has stated wanting a slower timeline. But barring a surprising decision from parliament, it seems like Bougainville will become its own country in the next few years.

Rojava

While Bougainville is the most likely to become a new country, Rojava is probably the least likely one we’ll talk about today. Rojava is located in northeastern Syria, and it is officially known as the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, though it is not an official autonomous region. Rojava is populated predominantly by Kurds, and the name comes from the Kurdish name for Syrian Kurdistan, but we’ll come back to Kurdistan in a moment.

Rojava as a de facto autonomous zone was born out of the ongoing Syrian Civil War that began in 2011. The Kurdish forces seized control of a number of cities with a Kurdish majority, and they wrote their own constitution for self governance. Throughout the conflict, Rojava has battled not only the Syrian Armed Forces, but ISIS as well. To date, Rojava is credited as being the only ones to successfully and comprehensively defeat ISIS in a ground conflict, largely driving them out of the region.

As for the government of Rojava, it is often regarded as the closest thing to an anarchist state the world has ever seen, though it is more a libertarian socialist government. They have a communal government that lacks the typical hierarchical systems people expect of governments, and there is no official police force.

Although their military does enforce laws and protect government buildings, what we would consider local law enforcement is handled by the Civil Defense Forces. These are decentralized programs that basically act as a neighbourhood watch, patrolling their own neighbourhoods for any signs of criminal activity or possible attacks by ISIS. They are typically armed, and some carry radios with which they can contact the military in the event that they do witness invasions by ISIS or other forces.

Rojava’s system of government has been seen by many as a radical experiment, and the Kurds are determined to keep Rojava’s autonomy from Syria. However, one thing they have explicitly stated they do not want is full independence.

So why would Rojava be on this list if they said they don’t even want to be their own country? Well, the situation for the Kurds is more complicated than just the region of Rojava. As we said before, the name Rojava comes from the Kurdish name for Syrian Kurdistan, and it is part of the larger Kurdistan region that comprises parts of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran as well.

There are estimated to be between 30 and 45 million Kurds, making them the largest stateless ethnic group in the world. Many of them would like to change this, and they seek for Kurdistan to become its own nation.

Calling Kurdistan a long shot would be an understatement, as it would require taking land from all four of the aforementioned nations. Iraq has an official autonomous zone for the Kurds and Syria has a de facto one, but Iran has refused to recognize any Kurdish autonomy and Turkey has militantly opposed it. In fact, one of the main reasons Rojava isn’t seeking independence is because of the almost certainty that it would result in their immediate invasion by Turkey.

However, the situation has become even more volatile recently. In December of 2024, the regime of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, who was seen as a totalitarian dictator, was overthrown. This has created considerable upheaval, meaning that the future of Rojava remains uncertain. It is possible that the future political climate that emerges from the current chaos makes full independence for Rojava a more attractive possibility to its residents.

Azawad

Similar to the Kurds, the Tuaregs are a stateless ethnic group in Africa who inhabit an area spanning multiple national borders, particularly northern Mali. During the scramble for Africa of the late 19th and early 20th century, about 90% of the continent was colonized by European powers.

One of the areas claimed by France was French Sudan, which, after several name changes, became the Autonomous State of Mali in 1958. Two years later, Mali became independent from France and became recognized as its own country. Once Mali was independent, the Tuareg, Berber, and Arab people in the region expected that they would get to form their own independent state as well, which they called Azawad.

When this didn’t happen, it resulted in a Tuareg rebellion against the Malian government beginning in 1962. But the rebellion was unorganized, lacking any unified leadership or plan, and it was ultimately unsuccessful. There were two more unsuccessful rebellions in the 1990s and 2000s, but another rebellion in 2012 showed signs of progress.

The National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad took control of northern Mali and the major cities of Timbuktu, Kidal, and Gao. They then made a unilateral declaration of independence, though this independence was not recognized by the rest of the world.

Unfortunately for the Tuaregs, this declared independence was short lived. In their war against the Malian government, the Tuaregs had aligned themselves with the Islamist group Ansar Dine, which had ties to Al-Qaeda. Although this alliance helped them in the short term to gain control of the region, the Tuaregs were quickly pushed out by Al-Qaeda who co-opted the movement and tried to turn Azawad into an extremist Islamic state.

They then tried to take control of all of Mali, but the Malian army, with support from France and Chad, were able to recapture northern Mali and end the rebellion. A peace deal was reached in 2013 that granted the Tuaregs greater autonomy. There was supposed to be a referendum in 2017 that would have granted even greater autonomy as well as officially renaming the northern region of Mali to Azawad, but this never happened.

Although there hasn’t been another large scale rebellion since 2012, there has been continued insurgency and calls for independence. The region has also become increasingly unstable, as the Malian government experienced coups in 2020 and 2021. French soldiers were kicked out of Mali, and instead Russian soldiers from the Wagner Group were invited in. Amidst all the chaos, the Tuaregs regained control of most of northern Mali.

Should their territory extend all the way to Timbuktu and Gao again, they may once again attempt to declare Azawad as an independent nation. If that happens, we’ll have to see whether foreign nations again provide support to put down the rebellion or if they will instead recognize Azawad as its own country this time.

New Caledonia

The group of islands known as New Caledonia, located off the eastern coast of Australia, was first made known to Europeans after they were spotted by British explorer James Cook in 1774. The northeast of the largest island reminded him of Scotland, so he named it New Caledonia after the name given to Scotland by the Roman Empire, thus creating a sort of Ouroboros of colonization.

New Caledonia was of little interest to Europeans for the next few decades, until they began taking people from islands in the South Pacific and selling them into slavery. There are also reports that a crew of British missionaries and another crew of Americans were both murdered and cannibalized by the natives.

Finally, in 1853, Napoleon III decided that New Caledonia was going to belong to France. There were 50-60,000 indigenous people known as Kanaks living on the island, but Napoleon sent a couple dozen French settlers, so as far as Europe was concerned New Caledonia was part of France now. A decade later it became a French penal colony, with roughly 10,000 convicts sent to the island over the next 20 years.

The same year it became a penal colony, they also discovered large deposits of nickel on the island. Much like with Bougainville, the natural resources began being heavily mined, and the indigenous population did not receive any of the financial benefits. But they did receive plenty of smallpox and measles, which wiped out over half of the Kanak population.

The Kanaks were eventually confined to reservations, leading to multiple unsuccessful rebellions. After World War II the French government extended citizenship to all residents of New Caledonia, and the island began focusing more on trade with nearby Australia. The indigenous population also finally returned to its pre-colonization levels, making them the largest ethnic group on the island again.

Throughout all this, New Caledonia wanted its independence from France. There were multiple armed conflicts between 1976 and 1988, culminating in a hostage crisis in Ouvéa cave just days before the 1988 French presidential election. Kanak militants killed four French police officers and took 27 more hostage, until the military assaulted the cave, killing 19 of the hostage takers.

This ultimately resulted in the Matignon Agreement, a ten year deal that would improve conditions on the islands, as well as granting amnesty to those on both sides of the hostage crisis. The basic idea was that the Kanaks promised not to talk about independence for the next ten years, and the French would make New Caledonia as nice a place to live as possible so that they wouldn’t even want independence anymore.

After the ten years were up, the Nouméa Accord was signed. This set up a 20 year transition period during which New Caledonia would have increased political power and autonomy, and they would be allowed to hold three referendum votes on whether or not they wanted their independence.

The first vote was held in 2018, and 56.7% of voters chose to stay with France. The second vote was held in October of 2020, and this time only 53.4% of voters chose to stay with France. Momentum seemed to be on the side of independence for the third vote, which was scheduled for December of 2021.

However, Covid deaths had disproportionately affected the Kanak population, who were largely in favour of independence. The deaths resulted in a traditional period of mourning that would have affected voter turnout, so pro-independence groups lobbied for the vote to be delayed until after the pandemic. The French government refused to move the vote, so the pro-independence groups instead organized to boycott the vote.

The vote to stay with France passed with 96.5% of the vote, however voter turnout was only 43.9%, down from 85.7% the previous year. That suggests that the vote was still going to be extremely close, but independence may have won. Regardless, French president Emmanuel Macron declared that the will of the people of New Caledonia had been made clear, and they would be staying under French rule.

Of course, the story doesn’t end there. Pro-independence groups have been trying to have the 2021 vote thrown out, and they even petitioned the International Court of Justice to weigh in on the matter, though the court still has yet to say whether or not they’ll hear the case. Though the situation isn’t as violent as it was before 1988 and the Matignon Agreements, there have been protests and riots in New Caledonia since the third referendum.

At this point it seems like an independent nation of New Caledonia is only a matter of time, it’s just unclear whether France agreeing to another referendum vote will be a matter of years or decades.

South Yemen

Our last entry today is a country that already existed once, and it potentially will again. The region of Yemen has a complex history, with it often being fragmented and contested by different tribes. Things were no less complicated following colonization by the Ottomans and the British.

None of the Ottomans actually wanted to be assigned to Yemen, so only the worst and most corrupt officials wound up there. They were also constantly at odds with the local tribes. While British rule of the Aden Protectorate, centered around the port city of Aden, was a bit more orderly, they still faced heavy opposition from Arab nationals.

After the First World War and the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, North Yemen became the Mutawakkilite Kingdom of Yemen. A civil war in the 1960s overthrew the government and the area became the Yemen Arab Republic, commonly referred to as North Yemen.

The British were trying to decolonize South Yemen at this point, as they realized they would not be able to manage the region effectively. They attempted to create a federation of the different Arab tribes, but influences from the Eastern bloc took hold and in 1967 South Yemen officially became the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, the only communist state in the Middle East.

Unlike other regions that were split by communism like East and West Germany, North and South Korea, and North and South Vietnam, North and South Yemen generally experienced peaceful coexistence with one another. There were a couple Yemeni civil wars in the 1970s, but these were short lived and both ended with talks of unification of the two countries.

In 1990 that unification became a reality, and North and South Yemen became the single nation of Yemen. However, in 2014, Iranian backed Houthi rebels seized control of Yemen’s capital city of Sana’a, leading to the still ongoing Yemeni Civil War.

There are several factions fighting in the civil war, though there are three that are considerable larger than the others. There are the Iranian backed Houthis who claim to be the legitimate, official government of Yemen, and the Saudi backed Republic of Yemen, who are the official government recognized by the United Nations. Both of these factions seek to gain control of the entire region of Yemen.

However, the third large faction is the Southern Transitional Council, backed by the United Arab Emirates. This is a separatist faction who seeks to secede and recreate the nation of South Yemen. While peace talks appeared to be making progress in 2022 and 2023, the violence has only escalated since then.

It’s impossible to say what the end result of the Yemeni Civil War will be at this point, but history seems to suggest that the cultural and political differences throughout the region make a single, unified state of Yemen difficult to maintain.

Key Takeaways

• Bougainville is the most likely to become a new country, with a 2019 referendum showing 98% support for independence.
• Rojava, a Kurdish-controlled region in Syria, seeks autonomy but not full independence due to regional tensions.
• The Tuareg people of northern Mali have repeatedly rebelled for independence as Azawad, facing instability and external influences.
• New Caledonia has held referendums on independence from France, with the latest vote boycotted by pro-independence groups.
• South Yemen, previously an independent state, is a potential future country due to ongoing civil war and separatist movements.

Sources

• Original Side Projects video: 5 Countries that Might Soon Exist…

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