5 Unusual Places World War 3 Could Begin

Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, fears of World War 3 have skyrocketed. Countless articles, videos, and politicians warn of a potential escalation between NATO and the Russian Federation that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. And along with the classic Russia/US showdown, there are a few other places that are often cited as having the potential to ignite the next global conflict, mainly China vs Taiwan, and North Korea vs South Korea.

Most people are quite familiar with these tensions, the danger they pose, and how they could potentially drag countless other nations into the fray. And that’s why today we’re going to ignore them entirely, and instead cover 5 other, generally lesser-known conflicts that still have the potential to spark the next world war.

The Nile

The water of the Nile River has supported civilizations for thousands of years, and today, an estimated 300 million people depend on it for survival. Many of these people live in Egypt, as the Nile is the greatest source of water in the region since Egypt doesn’t receive very much rainfall.

Because of this dependence, Egypt has historically battled to maintain control over the Nile’s flow and was easily able to achieve this while being either the dominant regional power or being occupied by the British Empire, which they were for the first half of the 20th century. During this occupation, Egypt and Great Britain signed a contract in 1929, with Great Britain supposedly representing the interests of its other colonies in the area. This contract gave Egypt undisputed control over the Nile’s water, and, crucially, the power to veto any construction projects that threatened this control, even if they were upstream, far outside of Egypt’s borders.

But ever since the colonial powers left, the newly independent African nations upstream have argued that they aren’t bound by this century-old contract and have just as much a right to the river as anyone else. In 2010, these countries all got together and signed their own contract, the Cooperative Framework Agreement, and Egypt refused to sign.

In particular, Ethiopia has recently developed a great interest in their share of the Nile, a tributary called the Blue Nile. In 2011, Ethiopia announced its intentions to build Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam on this tributary, The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which would provide enough power to significantly boost its nation’s industry and quality of life. Egypt immediately condemned the project and called on their archaic right to veto its construction, but Ethiopia simply continued.

As the dam’s construction has gone on, Egypt has grown more and more concerned about its potential effects on the Nile’s flow, with some studies showing that the dam could reduce Egyptian irrigation by more than a third. Countless meetings, negotiations, and even international mediations have resulted in nothing, and as time goes on, Egypt has become increasingly hostile about the subject. In 2013, the Egyptian President accidentally televised a clip of him saying that the dam needed to be destroyed, and in 2021 the president said that if a single drop of Egypt’s water was touched, all options were open.

Ethiopia doesn’t take these as idle threats, as the dam’s proximity to Sudan’s border makes it an easy target, especially since Sudan largely supports Egypt in the dispute. Russian and Israeli air defense systems have been installed on the site to deter an Egyptian Air Strike, but Egypt has also mentioned the possibility of a domestic rebellion to destroy the dam.

As of now, the dam has largely been completed, and is in the process of filling its reservoirs, which it is trying to do slowly to avoid disrupting the water flow. If Egypt does decide to make a move, it could quickly drag many African neighbors into the war for water, as countries take sides over the management of the precious resource.

Sudan and Egypt are the main players on one half, but to secure more support, they recently struck a surprising military intelligence deal with Uganda and Burundi to the south. Ethiopia has the tentative backing of Kenya and Tanzania, who will likely come to defend the dam if push comes to shove. A war in the Nile Basin has the potential to not only destabilize much of Africa, but it could also easily pull in foreign powers who want to protect their investments in the region or take the chance to increase their influence with the winning side. And this is all the more reason to hope that a peaceful solution can be found along the banks of the Nile.

Aegean Sea

Just a little north of the Nile conflict, another potential war is brewing in the Aegean Sea, between the nations of Greece and Turkey. Despite both countries being members of NATO, recent disputes and threats have made a war between them seem like a frightening possibility. The issue between Greece and Turkey is incredibly complex, and goes back hundreds of years, to when the Ottoman Empire controlled Greece, and Greece’s later retaliatory invasion of Turkey in an attempt to grab land that it claimed was historically Greek.

In more recent times, there has been conflict on virtually every front. For starters, while Greece is comprised of many, many islands, several of them have been given a demilitarized status, especially the ones near Turkey. Whenever Greek troops land on these islands during training exercises, Turkey complains to the UN that it represents an act of aggression. This is an especially tricky subject concerning several disputed islands, most notably the islets of Imia, a pair of uninhabited rocky islands that both countries lay claim to.

Both sides also lay claim to much of the Aegean Sea as an exclusive economic zone, especially since the discovery of hydrocarbon reserves below the seabed. Greece claims that its economic zone extends out from each of its islands, which would give it near complete dominance of the sea, while Turkey claims that their economic zone should only extend from the mainland and should be shared.

Essentially, Turkey believes that Greece intends to turn the Aegean into a Greek lake, cutting Turkey out of the equation entirely, and Greece believes that Turkey wants to take half of the sea, which would isolate Greek islands in Turkish controlled waters, and cut them off from their motherland, making them easy pickings if Turkey ever felt like snatching them up.

In 2019, Turkish President Erdoğan signed a surprise deal with Libya, splitting up the eastern Mediterranean in a move that was largely seen as cutting Greece out of the water, and was condemned not only by Greece, but by the United States, the European Union, the Arab League, and even Russia. In response, Greece struck a deal with Egypt.

And none of this even touches on the issue of the island of Cyprus. In the 1970s, a Greek coup d’etat overthrew the president of Cyprus, essentially giving Greece control of the island. Turkey responded with an invasion, and even after ceasefires were agreed upon and Cyprus got its government back, Turkey never left, and the island is still split in two, with the southern half known as the Republic of Cyprus and the northern half known as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. As you can expect, negotiations about reuniting the halves of Cyprus have gone absolutely nowhere.

But perhaps the most troubling of all is the dispute in the skies. This dispute is rather similar to the issue on the water, with Turkey not recognizing Greece’s claims to a 4 mile-wide extension of its airspace beyond its national borders. To show their disapproval, Turkish aircraft regularly violate Greek airspace, prompting Greek aircraft to take to the skies and intercept them.

This commonly leads to dangerous maneuvers and so-called ‘mock dogfights’ as each side attempts to intimidate the other pilot, which has unfortunately led to several casualties. In 1995 a Turkish pilot had to eject after diving toward the sea, in 1996 a Turkish jet was allegedly shot down with a missile, and in 2006 the two jets accidentally collided. The list goes on and on.

After many of these incidents, the two have come close to the brink of war as militaries were readied, only to avert the crisis at the last minute. And the problem only seems to be getting worse, when in 2022 Erdoğan threatened Greece with an invasion of the islands it deems occupied, and even threatened to strike Athens with missiles if they keep pushing their luck. If Turkey and Greece do end up going to war, NATO could find itself in one of its trickiest situations in its history, and may be fractured on how to respond in what could quickly escalate into a large-scale regional conflict.

Kosovo

1990s Europe was characterized by one of the most devastating wars in recent history: the collapse of Yugoslavia. As the once multicultural nation fractured into its constituent republics, each fought for its independence in this brutal war, and, by the end, from the ashes of Yugoslavia rose 6 independent nations. To many, this signified the end of the war, but, for the Republic of Kosovo, the fight was only beginning.

Early on in the war, Kosovo, which was an autonomous region of Serbia, declared independence just like Croatia, Slovenia, and everyone else. However, when hostilities ended in 1996, the issue of Kosovo was not addressed, and the republic was left as a semi-autonomous state of Serbia despite being comprised mostly of ethnic Albanians.

Long story short, this led to violence when skirmishes began breaking out between Kosovar rebels and Serbian police forces, prompting a military response from Serbia which resulted in several massacres across the republic. NATO, who had intervened previously on behalf of the UN in Bosnia, decided not to wait for UN approval and immediately responded by bombing Serbia, ultimately resulting in a ceasefire and a UN peacekeeping mission to guard the border of Kosovo.

Thousands died and more than a million were left homeless after the war, but at least things quieted down for a bit, Kosovo was kept separate from Serbia and began making a name for themselves, distinguishing themselves from their Russian-allied neighbor by having a Bill Clinton Boulevard in the middle of their capital city, along with a statue of the President himself. Finally, in 2008, Kosovo officially declared independence as a sovereign nation, but they weren’t exactly welcomed with open arms. As of 2020, 114 UN members recognized Kosovo’s legitimacy, with the key exception of both Russia and China, two very important players in the United Nations.

This keeps the republic from becoming an official UN member. It has also recently applied for membership to the European Union, but this will be difficult as there is still the issue of a Serb minority in the north whose allegiance lies with Belgrade.

Serbia, of course, resents every one of these steps toward independence, as they still perceive Kosovo as a nothing more than a rogue, breakaway state. In recent times, tensions have come close to a boiling point on more than one occasion, with Serbian troops being sent to the border “just in case” and even occasional skirmishes between police forces.

Both sides continue to accuse the other of acting provocatively, and one mistake could blow the entire situation up. Military action by either side could easily result in a second NATO intervention again on the side of Kosovo, but also Russian intervention on the side of Serbia, who Russia views as a critical ally in a region full of NATO members. All of this makes this small border in the Balkans an incredibly tense spot for modern international relations.

Kashmir

A beautiful region in South Asia, Kashmir is known for its stunning landscape, rich cultural heritage, and, unfortunately, its disputed status between not just two, but three nations. India, Pakistan, and China all lay claim to some part of this piece of land on the edge of the Himalayas.

The issue dates back to just after the Second World War, when the subcontinent was still a British Colony. When India was granted independence, the region was divided into two separate dominions based on religion: Pakistan would be the place for the Muslims in the region, and India would be for the Hindus. According to the plan, everyone was supposed to quietly migrate to their respective country and live happily ever after, but it actually led to the deaths of more than a million people as violence erupted along the entire border. But this wasn’t the end of the troubles:

The province of Jammu and Kashmir, usually just called Kashmir, was populated with both Muslims and Hindus, as well as a decent population of Sikhs, and so it wasn’t exactly clear which country the province would go to. But both, of course, laid claim to its entirety, and soon a war broke out for its control. An eventual ceasefire ended the conflict with each side controlling a portion of Kashmir.

The picture got a bit more complicated in 1962, when Chinese and Indian troops clashed, resulting in China taking a piece of eastern Kashmir. Two more wars were fought between India and Pakistan, and there have been several serious border clashes, even as recent as the 21st century.

Today, India controls about 55% of Kashmir, Pakistan controls about 30%, and China controls about 15%. India believes all of Kashmir should be Indian, and Pakistan disagrees on the basis that numerous riots have broken out in favor of joining Pakistan, though Pakistan has also been known to send thousands of insurgents into the region, so who knows how many of these riots are legitimately Kashmiri. China believes that its little portion should not be counted as part of Kashmir, and is an integral piece of China, while also disputing various borders with Tibet.

While some progress has been made on the diplomacy front, the issue has yet to be resolved, and is quite tense at times, especially as the overall situation between India and Pakistan continues down its emotional rollercoaster of threats and accusations. Things aren’t great with China either, as there have been several border clashes between Indian and Chinese troops in recent years. If one of these countries makes a move that another perceives as a threat to their claim, Kashmir could quickly become the epicenter of the next great war, stuck in a tug-of-war between more than three billion people.

The Holy Land

The tension between Israel and its neighbors is well known, with several wars having been fought through the decades over things like various claims to Arab land and of course, the complex situation with Palestine. But the one nation Israel is seeming more and more likely to go to war with in the near future is none other than Iran.

The conflict between Israel and Iran is a complex one, but, one of its most prominent issues are the two country’s nuclear policies. Israel is widely known to possess nuclear weapons, despite never officially confirming this, something that Iran has sought for many years. On more than one occasion, Iran’s nuclear research, either for weapons or civilian use, has been stopped dead in its tracks by what they claim are Israeli attacks. A cyberattack in 2021 caused a blackout in the Natanz Nuclear Facility, and a year earlier one of Iran’s top nuclear scientists was assassinated.

It’s generally accepted that Israel is behind these attacks as a preventative measure, as there is a general perception that Israel would be an immediate target if Iran were to develop nuclear bombs. They’ve gone as far as to steal top secret documents from secure Iranian warehouses in Mission-Impossible type operations using torches and sneaking out before the guards showed up for their morning shift.

But aside from the espionage, there has also been fairly direct conflict between the two. For many years now, the two countries have been involved in a sort of Cold War, instigating proxy conflicts and covertly supplying rebels to attack the other side, with at least 12 different militant groups involved. Each side supports opposing armies in the Syrian Civil War, Israel supports Iranian rebel groups, and Iran has supplied numerous organizations that have attacked Israel, including Hezbollah and Hamas.

Things have only escalated in 2023, when a series of drone attacks struck factories and oil refineries deep inside Iran, causing structural damage and massive fires. Many reporters, including the Wall Street Journal, claimed that Israel was behind the attack. If true, this would be a significant escalation of previous tensions.

What is currently a semi-cold war between the two could easily escalate into full-scale armed conflict if either side pushes too far. For instance, a successful Iranian nuclear test would provoke a swift Israeli response. But a war here would be unlikely to stay just between Israel and Iran, as each side would quickly call upon its allies.

The United States and Saudi Arabia would likely come to Israel’s aid, and on Iran’s side Syria and Lebanon would almost certainly join the fight. What’s most concerning is that Russia and Iran have been deepening their relations over the past couple years, meaning either Russian troops or extensive Russian support is almost guaranteed, especially as a chance to get back at the United States for supporting Ukraine. There are so many players in this region, like Turkey, Iraq, and Libya, and, of course oil, that an all-out war between Israel and Iran is likely to pull in many other powers, and certainly has the possibility to escalate into the deadliest war of the 21st century.

Key Takeaways

• The Nile River dispute involves Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, with Egypt fearing reduced water flow due to Ethiopia’s dam construction.
• Greece and Turkey’s longstanding tensions in the Aegean Sea involve territorial disputes, airspace violations, and potential NATO involvement.
• Kosovo’s independence from Serbia remains contentious, with Russia and China not recognizing it, and potential NATO-Russia conflict looming.
• Kashmir is disputed by India, Pakistan, and China, with historical conflicts and recent border clashes escalating tensions.
• Israel and Iran’s nuclear policies and proxy conflicts could escalate into a full-scale war, drawing in regional and global powers.

Sources

• Original Side Projects video: 5 Unusual Places World War 3 Could Begin
• Hero image source by Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum / openverse, by-sa.

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